The Case for Pragmatic Decarbonisation: Transitional Fuels as a Strategic Necessity

As the maritime industry navigates the increasingly stringent waters of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) Net-Zero Framework, a critical debate has emerged: can the global fleet afford to wait for "perfect" zero-emission fuels, or must it embrace a more incremental approach?

According to a recent analysis by Eddy Van Bouwel of EvBo Consult, the answer is a matter of mathematical and operational necessity. Transitional fuels are no longer a side-note in the decarbonization story; they are the primary infrastructure upon which the 2030 and 2050 targets will either stand or fall.

Moving Beyond the Funnel

The traditional method of measuring a ship’s environmental impact looking only at what is emitted from the funnel—is rapidly being replaced by a more holistic "Well-to-Wake" (WtW) standard. This shift is fundamental to the argument for transitional fuels.

Van Bouwel highlights a sobering reality for proponents of a rapid shift to methanol: conventional methanol actually possesses a WtW greenhouse gas footprint roughly 11% higher than standard Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO).

This data underscores the danger of a "zero-or-nothing" mentality. Without the use of transitional "blue" or "bio" variants to bridge the gap, new technology could inadvertently increase total global emissions.

A Shield Against Stranded Assets

For shipowners, the primary risk of the current energy transition is "asset stranding" building a vessel today that becomes a multi-million-dollar liability due to shifting regulations or fuel unavailability.

The Net-Zero Framework, as advocated by Van Bouwel, utilizes transitional fuels as an insurance policy. Dual-fuel engines capable of burning Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), bio-blends, or low-carbon methanol allow owners to invest in new tonnage today.

These ships provide immediate carbon reductions—often between 20% and 25% while remaining technically compatible with the "green" fuels of the future once global production scales up.

Operational Reality: The Blending Debate

One of the more provocative insights from the EvBo Consult report involves the strategy of fuel blending.

While many operators are looking at low-concentration bio-blends (such as B20 or B30) as a way to satisfy regulators, the analysis suggests a more targeted approach may be superior.

Using pure green fuels for specific voyage legs or during port stays—utilizing dual-fuel flexibility often results in higher net emission savings and fewer long-term maintenance issues for the engines.

This "segmentation" strategy allows ports like Rotterdam and Singapore to prioritize their limited supplies of renewable fuels where they have the most significant impact.

Transitional fuels offer the only viable mechanism to begin the descent from peak emissions immediately. As the MEPC continues its deliberations in 2026, the focus is shifting away from theoretical "silver bullets" and toward the practical, scalable fuels that can be pumped into ships today. In the race to Net-Zero, the "middle path" is looking less like a compromise and more like the only route to the finish line.